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Various contributors: 2010 Geopolitical Review - trends, events and risks

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Recent books by the contributors

Geopolitics: the Geography of International Relations

Saul Cohen, "Geopolitics: the Geography of International Relations", Roman and Littlefield, 2008

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Simon Dalby, "Security and Environmental Change", Polity Press, 2009

Humanitarian Aid After the 2004 Tsunami

Jennifer Hyndman, "Dual Disasters: Humanitarian Aid After the 2004 Tsunami", Kumarian Press, 2010

Book cover

Olivier Kempf, "L'OTAN au 21ème siècle, la transformation d'un héritage", Éditions Artège, 2010.

Various contributors, January 2011

Introduction

logo ExploringGeopolitics

The variety in opinions on what geopolitics is and how it works means that people have different views on what happens in the world. To present a timely and broad perspective on the possible meanings of geopolitics, the editor has asked the contributors to ExploringGeopolitics what they thought were the most remarkable trends, events and risks in 2010. In this article, geopolitical specialists from Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States cast light on developments in that year.

The first part forms a general overview of the year and contains the contributions from Saul Cohen, Simon Dalby, Jennifer Hyndman, Olivier Kempf and Andrea Teti. They discuss respectively the global geopolitical structure, the new START Treaty, the prison sentence of Omar Khadr, some changes in regional political relations and the mediation efforts of the Obama administration in The Middle East.

Please have a look at the other parts for comments on the European Union and South Asia:

Mamadouh / Rogers: 2010 Geopolitical Review - European Union

Rakisits / Reynolds: 2010 Geopolitical Review - South Asia

A role of Gateway Region for East Europe and Central Asia

Professor Emeritus Saul Cohen, Hunter College and City University NY, US

picture Saul Cohen

The outlines of the 21st century geopolitical structure become more clearly defined.

East Europe and Central Asia began to assume Gateway region roles. First, the new START treaty, abandonment of an American ABM shield in Eastern Europe in favor of a European and U.S. short and medium range shield achieved Russia's cooperation. Second, Moscow also supported over-flight of its territory to supply NATO troops in the Afghan war. Third, election of a new Prime Minister in Poland was catalyst for a shift from the country's political orientation to the U.S. to espousing a bridge role between the Trans-Atlantic powers and Russia. Fourth, this was matched by the declaration of Ukraine's new President that the country would not join any military pact, dropping its request for admission to NATO, and extending Russia's lease on Sebastopol to 2042.

Furthemore, the rise of Brazil and Turkey as significant global players, failure of Washington's mediation efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and tension between China and its Pacific Rim neighbors over the Economic Zone boundary are other 'geopolitical moments' of 2010.

Ratification of the new START Treaty by US Senate

Professor Simon Dalby, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

picture Simon Dalby

The last gasp ratification of the new START by the US Senate at the very end of the year seems to me to be a crucial moment in 2010.

Getting nuclear arms reduction back on track, even in this relatively modest way, does send a crucial signal that political elites are willing to step back from one of their worst twentieth century follies. There is a long way to go to a nuclear free world, but Obama's foreign policy initiative, in that it reverses years of neglect on this theme, is a welcome move in the right direction.

The prison sentence of Omar Khadr

Professor Jennifer Hyndman, York University, Canada

picture Jennifer Hyndman

In 2010, Canadian Omar Khadr, the only remaining detainee at Guantanamo from an OECD country, entered a guilty plea to the military commission hearing his case (no civilians were part of the jury). He was charged with the murder of US soldier and medic, Christoper Speer in Afghanistan when he was 15 years old. Khadr, now 23, plea bargained for an 8 year sentence. Then, the jury continued to deliberate unaware of the plea bargain, and decided to sentence him to 40 years in prison. This kangaroo court would never be sufficient to try an American who had committed even the most heinous of crimes.

It represents the power of geopolitics in shaping and distorting 'the rule of law' countries like the US and Canada hold so dear.

Regional changes such as the strengthening of Brazil's position in the Americas

Olivier Kempf, Maître de Conférences and Lecturer at Science-Po, Paris, France

picture Olivier Kempf

I believe that we should distinguish between regions.

In Europe, the policy measures to support the euro have intensified a new coordination within the EU, although this may be hard to observe. Another key development in 2010 was the strengthening of Brazil's position in the Americas thanks to Lula's efforts. Moreover, I observed an economic and political normalization in Africa. In Central Asia, a turning point in Afghanistan and Pakistan is conceivable, leading to the beginning of a solution. Finally, in the Far East, the hardening of the Chinese position resulted in the emergence of an adversarial alliance against China, led by the US.

Ineffective mediation of the Obama Administration in The Middle East

Dr Andrea Teti, Lecturer, Aberdeen University, UK

picture Andrea Teti

In the Middle East, it is undoubtedly the US administration's failure to follow through on its requests to Israel to halt settlement construction. This failure and the concessions effectively made by the Obama Administration undermined its credibility with public opinion across the Arab and Muslim world, with knock-on effects far beyond the specifics of the Palestinian question.