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Looking back at 2009: key geopolitical trends

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Recent books by these contributors

Geopolitics: the Geography of International Relations

Saul Cohen, "Geopolitics: the Geography of International Relations", Roman and Littlefield, 2008

Book cover

Simon Dalby, "Security and Environmental Change", Polity Press, 2009

Cover of book

Gérard Dussouy, "Les théories de la mondialité.", Traité de Relations internationales, tome 3, L’Harmattan, Paris, 2009

Strauss

Michael Straus, "The Leasing of Guantanamo Bay", Praeger, 2009.

Various contributors, December 2009

Introduction

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In this article, eight geopolitical specialists that have earlier contributed to ExploringGeopolitics share what they consider the most critical geopolitical development in 2009. The discussed developments include the United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen, implementation of the Lisbon Treaty and a couple of decisions of US president Barck Obama.

The comments have been ordered alphabetically by last name of contributor.

Acceleration of existing geopolitical trends

Bordonaro

Professor Federico Bordonaro, La Sapienza University, Rome

The year 2009 has accelerated already existing geopolitical trends: the consolidation of Chinese influence in international diplomacy, Beijing’s pursuit of military might, Europe’s struggle with its lack of political-strategic cohesion, the U.S. attempts to regain the upper hand in Afghanistan and to fight against its perceived loss of prestige, the growing hysteria about possible implications of allegedly man-made global warming. All such trends have continued in the context of a slow and difficult recover from the deep economic crisis began in 2008.

Note: this is an extract of an article that ExploringGeopolitics will publish in January 2010.

Terrorism: its increasingly destabilizing impact

Saul Cohen, University Professor Emeritus at Hunter College and City University of New York

picture Saul Cohen

In 2009, common efforts to combat the deep recession by the economically interdependent Great and Emerging powers overroad some of their political and military rivalries. This strengthened global geopolitical equilibrium.

Off-setting this trend has been the increasingly destabilizing impact of terrorism and religious nationalism operating from bases within the world's Shatterbelts to threaten the security of the Great power geostrategic realms. These Shatterbelts now extend from Africa and the Middle East through Afghanistan and Pakistan into parts of Central Asia, with a Latin American outlier. Unchecked, they could evolve into a new geostrategic realm that would undermine the capacities of the Great Powers to further global equilibrium.

US: no missile defense facilities in Europe

Simon Dalby, Professor, Carleton University, Ottawa

picture Simon Dalby

The moment that President Obama announced the decision to rescind the previous policy of putting missile defence facilties in Europe may turn out to be the most significant geopolitical event of 2009. It opened the door for more serious negotiations concerning nuclear weapons with Russia, and partly undercut the impetus towards expanding the Shanghai security cooperation arrangement, what might have evolved towards a grand Asian alliance designed to "roll back" American encroachments into the "rimlands".

Rise of China and Swiss referendum on minarets

Professor Gérard Dussouy, University of Bordeaux, France

picture Gerard Dussouy

Two "geopolitical events" in 2009 appear significant to me. First, the confirmation of the movement of the global geopolitical centre to Asia. China has become the first industrial exporter and the largest creditor of the US. Henceforth, China will not accept any ideological interference by the West.

Second, the Swiss referendum on minarets which underlines the gap between the respective representations of the world by elites and by peoples. May this indicate a major future change in Europe in ideological and political terms?

United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen: no comprehensive agreement

Kate Edwards, PhD candidate, University of Washington, Seattle; Principal consultant at Englobe

picture Kate Edwards

As for a geopolitical review of 2009, I think for me the most critical development of the year is the LACK of development of a comprehensive climate change agreement out of Copenhagen. This event has been long-anticipated and trumpeted as a great opportunity to generate global consensus. But besides the fact that any kind of major agreement was not achieved (which I believe was idealistic to begin with), I think the event further highlighted the great, ongoing disparity in actuality and in perception between developed and developing nations. There is a very wide gulf between the two, and the geopolitical dynamic that ensues from that will continue to shape global geopolitics into the next decade (and beyond).

US: more troops to Afghanistan

Leonhardt van Efferink, Master student, King's College London; Editor of ExploringGeopolitics

picture van Efferink

For me, US president Barack Obama's decision to send more American troops to Afghanistan was the most remarkable geopolitical event in 2009.

Not being an expert in US politics, I wonder what this decision tells us about the differences in views on the world, US foreign policy and the international role of US troops between Democrats and Republicans. At least as important is the question how policies of an outgoing president affect the room to manoeuvre of a new president.

European Union: Enforcement of Lisbon Treaty

Igor Okunev, PhD candidate, Moscow Institute of International Relations

picture Igor Okunev

From my point of view the main geopolitical change for 2009 that will no doubt mark this year for the future generations is the coming into force of the Lisbon Treaty on December 1. This date is symbolizing from now a crucial change not only in EU structure and politics but also means a shift in global order and power balance in the world. The EU first in it history applied for the status of another one real geopolitical power. Till now the union on the international scale presented a combination of national interests of member states that